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At its previous meeting in July, the Committee decided to wait until data for the third quarter became available before making a judgement of whether a business cycle peak had occurred in early 1979.A variety of measures of real activity grew sharply from the second to the third quarter.The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction.The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was in 1980-1982, when the Committee determined that the contraction that began in 1981 was not a continuation of the one that began in 1980, but rather a separate full recession.Selected papers were published in the The 24th annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi, was held in Dublin, Ireland, June 8-9, 2001, hosted by Vincent Hogan, University College, Dublin.
The program was organized by Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi.
Industrial production and employment have actually declined in a substantial fraction of industries.
At this time, the various indicators examined by the Committee did not give a clear picture of the current state of the business cycle.
These included real gross national product and retail sales adjusted for price increases.
At the same time, industrial production, employment and unemployment remained stable.
Selected papers were published in the The 25th annual ISo M met in Frankfurt, Germany, June 14-15, 2002, hosted by Otmar Issing and Frank Smets, the European Central Bank.